UltraGreen.ai: The AI Illusion — Unmasking the Real Business

UltraGreen.ai’s recent listing has raised pressing questions among investors, analysts, and observers alike. Behind its futuristic branding, market watchers suggest the company is fundamentally a legacy dye seller attempting to capitalize on the AI branding boom.

## 1. The “AI-Washing” Problem

Despite the “.ai” appended to its name, the company’s business model remains tied almost entirely to Indocyanine Green (ICG).

In FY2024, ICG accounted for **94.2%** of total revenue — a hallmark of single-product dependence.

The touted “AI platform” is minimally commercial, with negligible revenue contribution. This has led many to read more liken the strategy to the **dot-com era**, where companies added buzzwords to inflate valuation multiples.

## 2. Supply Chain Fragility

UltraGreen relies fully on external manufacturing. Instead, it depends on third-party CMOs—with its key active ingredient currently sourced primarily from **one supplier**.

This creates:

- Single-point failure risk

- Little bargaining power

- Operational vulnerability

A disruption in 2024 already caused months-long bottlenecks.

Observers note that one factory incident could temporarily wipe out inventory.

## 3. Weakening Financials

UltraGreen’s recent financials show multiple stress indicators:

- Net margins fell from **47.7%** → **36.6%**

- FX losses totaled **US$7.0M** in 1H2025

- The IPO price implies an **82.3% dilution** relative to NAV

These trends point toward margin compression and currency exposure problems.

## 4. Compliance Red Flags

The prospectus discloses:

- A **“major deficiency”** flagged by Irish regulators (HPRA)

- Liability surrounding **off-label usage**

- U.S. market restrictions due to **competitor exclusivity** until 2026

Such issues highlight heightened governance risk.

## 5. The Listing Venue Questions

Industry commentary suggests the Singapore Exchange (SGX-ST) faces:

- Competency gaps in reviewing complex listings

- Bureaucratic friction

Critics argue this environment may enable companies to slip through with optimistic narratives despite financial red flags.

## 6. Ownership Concerns

Post-IPO, the Renew Group retains **~61.9%** control.

This means:

- Minority shareholders have limited influence

- Cross-company allegiances persist due to overlapping leadership roles.

## 7. Technological & Product Obsolescence

UltraGreen’s reliance on ICG faces new threats:

- Emerging **spectral imaging** technologies that don’t require injection dyes

- A recently sold PACS business, reducing proven tech revenue

- An AI platform that the prospectus admits may contain **bugs and defects**

This raises doubts about whether the company’s pivot toward AI is strategic or merely valuation-driven.

## Final Thoughts

UltraGreen.ai’s prospectus, corporate structure, and market positioning collectively reveal a legacy business with a modern label.

Investors should approach with a clear understanding of the underlying fundamentals.

This analysis is based solely on the UltraGreen.ai Limited Prospectus dated 26 Nov 2025 and is provided for informational and educational purposes only.